Is it too late to prevent catastrophic climate change?
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Watch at: 00:00 / 00:00:20thanks very much Paul for thoseintroductions and to everyone for comingalong and the RSA for organizing thisevent well what I want to do in thispaper this evening is to lay out thelatest scientific understanding of theWatch at: 00:20 / 00:40task that humanity faces in order toavoid catastrophic climate change one ofthe most striking features of the globalwarming debate is how with each advancein the science the news keeps gettingworse although temporarily slowed by theWatch at: 00:40 / 01:00effects of the global financial crisisthe world's greenhouse gas emissionshave been growing much faster thanpredicted in the 1990s in addition tothat since around about year 2005 anumber of scientific papers havedescribed the likelihood of the climateWatch at: 01:00 / 01:20system personally significant tippingpoints smallexchangers beyond the which the warmingprocess is reinforced by positivefeedback mechanismswell the paleoclimate record shows thatWatch at: 01:20 / 01:40the Earth's climate often changesabruptly flipping from one state toanother sometimes within a few years orfew decades and it now sends are almostcertain that if it hasn't occurredalready within the next several yearsenough warming will be locked into theWatch at: 01:40 / 02:00Earth's climate system the secondtrained feedback processes that willoverwhelm any attempts that we make tocut back on our carbon emissionsif this happens will be powerless tostop the jump to a new climate on earthone much less sympathetic to life theWatch at: 02:00 / 02:20accelerating rate of melting of theArctic sea ice has shocked thescientists studying it with manybelieving that summer sea ice willdisappear entirely within the nextdecade or so some expect it to be goneeven soonerWatch at: 02:20 / 02:40for instance mark Suri's director of theu.s. national snow and ice data centerhas declared that quote Arctic ice is inits death spiral the dark water surfacethat will replace the reflective whiteone in Sun will absorb more solarradiation sending like a positivefeedback process of further warming andWatch at: 02:40 / 03:00this is expected to initiate a cascadeof effects as the patch of one third ofthe Arctic spreads in all directionswarming the surrounding oceans meltingthe Siberian permafrost anddestabilizing the Greenland ice sheet inWatch at: 03:00 / 03:20December 2007 after some of it sort ofdramatic decline in Arctic sea ice NASAclimate scientist J's Wally said theArctic is often cited as the canary inthe coal mine for climatenow as a sign of climate warming thecanary has died it's time to startWatch at: 03:20 / 03:40getting out of the coal mines anotherresorted to a biblical metaphor climatescientists have begun to feel like abunch of Noah's the world's top climatescientists are now ringing the alarmbells at a deafening volume because thetime to act has virtually passed yetWatch at: 03:40 / 04:00it's as if the frequency of China isbeyond the threshold of human hearingat the same time society is becomingmore wiring growth in the world'sgreenhouse gas emissions has beenaccelerating in the 70s and 80s burglarmissions of carbon dioxide from burningWatch at: 04:00 / 04:20fossil fuels increasing about twopercent per annum in the 1990s theyfelled for about one percent per annumbut in the 2000s they grew to close to 3percent per annum at that rate annualemissions would double every 25 yearsWatch at: 04:20 / 04:40while rates of growth of greenhouse gasemissions have fallen below 1 percent inrich countries they've expandedenormously in developing countries ledof course by China where fossil fuelemissions have grown in the early yearsof the 21st century and indeed up untillast year by some 11 or 12 percent perWatch at: 04:40 / 05:00annum phenomenal rate of growth offossil emissions in 2005 China accountedfor 18 percent of the world's greenhousegas emissions by 2030 China reallyexpected to be responsible for 33percent now the Chinese government takesclimate change seriously much more soWatch at: 05:00 / 05:20than the United States under the Bushadministration and arguably more so thanthe United States and the Obamaadministration and the Chinesegovernment has implemented a number ofpolicies designed to cap the emissionsintensity of the electricity sector andtransform but the sheer expansion of theeconomy is swampy all attempts atWatch at: 05:20 / 05:40constraining growth of carbonin that country rather thandecarbonizing the world is in factcarbonizing at an unprecedented rate andit's doing so but precisely the time weknow we have to stop it the recession ofit arrived in late 2008 slowed and inWatch at: 05:40 / 06:00some countries reversed growth in annualcarbon emissions but the volume ofgreenhouse gases in the atmosphere hascontinued to rise just as reducing theflow rate of the tap water doesn't stopthe bath going up even if annualemissions stop dead around the world theWatch at: 06:00 / 06:20fact that most of past carbon emissionsremain in the atmosphere for a very longtime would mean that elevated globaltemperatures would persist for manycenturies in the 1990s theIntergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange the IPCC developed a number ofWatch at: 06:20 / 06:40scenarios to reflect future influenceson emissions and associated warming ofthe half dozen or so Maine by PCCscenarios the worst case scenario isknown as a1fiwe conceived that ready projection atWatch at: 06:40 / 07:00the top there right now this a one fiscenario the one that assumed thehighest estimates of warming in the IPCCreports so when you see those warmingrangers reported in the newspapers theywant to top the very highest one is theWatch at: 07:00 / 07:20one associated with a 1 fi and thisscenario assumes strong rates ofeconomic growth with continued highdependency on fossil fuel based forms ofenergy over the next decades in the mid2000s it began to become clear that theWatch at: 07:20 / 07:40growth in global carbon emissions hadrisen so high that the world has shiftedonto a path that is worse than theworst-case scenario andby the IPCC in its worst case scenariothe IPCC anticipated growth in carbondioxide emissions of 2.5 percent perWatch at: 07:40 / 08:00annum through to 2030 yet we've seenthat from around 2000 global emissionsbegan growing at close to three percentper annum so this is worse in the worstcase scenario and so that worst caseshould now be regarded as the mostlikely one in the absence of determinedintervention it's not only the dramaticWatch at: 08:00 / 08:20increase in the growth rate of globalemissions that's turning alarm intopanic in the scientific communityadvances in climate science have madethe future appear more grim than weimagined in particularanthropogenic warming is likely todisrupt the natural carbon cycleWatch at: 08:20 / 08:40sorry just notice that actual emissionsthese doctor ones at the top exceedingthe a1fi emissions the red line at thetop now now tonight is not the night togoing to the details of how the globalWatch at: 08:40 / 09:00carbon cycle works except to note thatwhen we dig up and burn coal over halfof the carbon dioxide released isabsorbed in pain land and ocean sinksvegetation and the oceans themselvesabsorb half of the extra carbon dioxidethat we're putting into the atmosphereWatch at: 09:00 / 09:20the rest the remainder stays in theatmosphere some of a probe a long time aquarter of it will still be affectingthe climate after a thousand years and10% of it will still be having theinfluence on the Earth's climate after ahundred thousand years it's a very verylong-lived gas through global warmingWatch at: 09:20 / 09:40that changes in atmospheric carbon alterthe rate of absorption and release ofcarbon from natural sinks in the oceansand the landWatch at: 09:40 / 10:00climate carbon cycle feedback mechanismsthat come into play include the reducedability of warmer ocean waters to removecarbon dioxide from the atmosphere andthe decline in deep ocean mixing andthat's the transport of carbon from thesurface organisms which absorb it intoWatch at: 10:00 / 10:20the deeper oceanin addition warming is expected to causemore deforestation through droughtsfires and high temperatures which willinhibit plant growth and scientistsparticularly worried about the effectson the Amazon well when ocean and landsingers take up less carbon a greaterWatch at: 10:20 / 10:40proportion of the carbon dioxide putinto the atmosphere by humans staystherestrengthening feedback effects andcausing more warming perhaps mostworrying the threshold for a release ofmethane and carbon dioxide from the vastpermafrost of Siberia is approachingWatch at: 10:40 / 11:00that it's already starting to bereleased driven by temperature risingthe Arctic which had close to fourdegrees is some three or four o'clockcomes higher than the global averagewarming overall the effectiveness ofmetal sinks at removing carbon dioxidefrom the atmosphere has declined byabout five percent over the last 50Watch at: 11:00 / 11:20years and the decline is expected tocontinue so more and more of the carbondioxide in the atmosphere will stay inthe atmosphere rather than beingabsorbed by land and ocean sinks thepresence of these climate carbon cyclefeedbacks means that we have to reduceour direct emissions by more than weWatch at: 11:20 / 11:40would need to if we had to contend onlywith the direct effects of our carbonemissions in fact the IPCC estimatesthat in order to stabilize greenhousegases of concentration of say 450 partsper million the presence of carbon cyclefeedbacks means that we'll have toreduce our total emissions over the 21stWatch at: 11:40 / 12:00century by 27% more than we wouldotherwise in the absence of these carbonKelvin sorry climate carbon cyclefeedbacks most leaving and climatescientists and this was confirmed to meat a conference of climate scientistsWatch at: 12:00 / 12:20two weeks ago in Oxford most climatescientists now believe that two degreesof warming would pose a substantial riskboth because of its direct impacts onclimatically sensitive earth systems andbecause of the potential to createirreversible changes in those systemsWatch at: 12:20 / 12:40the latter irreversible changes includethe disappearance of Arctic summer seaice and you can see from this chart herethe level of warming along the bottomaxis and get a probability distributionif you just look at this light blue lineWatch at: 12:40 / 13:00and see that after summer sea ice isexpected to disappear completely whitewarming reaches about one one one oneand a half degrees already we've gotnorth my seven weekend committed toanother point seven one point eight soone point five degrees is whollyunavoidable why don't you get up threeWatch at: 13:00 / 13:20degrees of warming and most climatescientists think that that's unavoidablethen you've got other tipping pointscoming into play the noggin of theHimalayan Tibetan iglesias melting ofthe Greenland ice sheet and those thingswarm up three degrees are more you'vegot to the collapse of the Amazonrainforest shits in the Romania and thenWatch at: 13:20 / 13:40things get super scary when you'retalking about disruption of peoplethey're like having circulation anddenoting the West Antarctic Ice Sheetthe relationship incidentally this chartcome from Ramanathan and thing whosepaper argued that we are already as aWatch at: 13:40 / 14:00result of past activity committed topoint four degrees of warming it'snothing we can do thiswhich would take us past three of thosecritical tipping points so that's goingWatch at: 14:00 / 14:20to happen they believe irrespective ofwhat we do nowdespite that James handsome are theworld foremost climate scientists hasdeclared the goal of keeping warming attwo degrees a recipe for global disasterhe believes the safe level of co2 on theatmosphere is no more than 350 parts perWatch at: 14:20 / 14:40million whereas two degrees isassociated with 450 parts per millionthe current level of carbon dioxide inthe atmosphere is 385 parts per millionso Hansen is saying we have to get backdown well below the level we're at nowand the only way we can do that is byfinding something that some technologyto somehow extract carbon dioxide fromWatch at: 14:40 / 15:00the atmosphere draw it down and disposeof it in a safe and permanent waytechnologies that don't exist despitethese are serious doubts about twodegrees and its implications let's askourselves where they're aiming to limitWatch at: 15:00 / 15:20warming to two degrees is a feasiblegoal what do we have to do to stopemissions pushing temperatures abovethis level well as you remember justbefore the Baliclimate change conference a year ago theend of 2008 climate scientists releaseda new assessment Pergamum that in orderto have good chance of limiting warmingWatch at: 15:20 / 15:40to two degrees centigrade rich countrieslike Australia must limit their reducedgreenhouse gas emissions by 25 to 40percent below 1990 levels by the year2020 and the 25 percent target quicklybecame entrenched as the global standardWatch at: 15:40 / 16:00or benchmark by which the commitment ofrich countries would the judge and ofcourse which countries the possibleexception of Europe have fallen farshort of them the fact that afor 25% instead of 40% the upper end ofthe range means that developingWatch at: 16:00 / 16:19countries would have to do a lot morethat fact was conveniently passed overin the debate well we've seen thatrolling decline or even growing moreslowly global emissions have beenaccelerating over the last better tohave any hope of avoiding catastropheglobal emissions must peak within theWatch at: 16:19 / 16:40next few years and certainly no laterthan 2020 and then begin a rapid declineto the point where all energy generationand industrial processes are completelycarbon free James Hansen has put a verybluntly hero decision makers do notappreciate the gravity of the situationWatch at: 16:40 / 17:00continued growth of greenhouse gasemissions for just another decadepractically eliminates the possibilityof near-term return of atmosphericcomposition the myth the tipping levelthe catastrophic effects and meeting inMarch of this year the world's climateleading climate scientists reach asimilar conclusion in their report theyWatch at: 17:00 / 17:20wrote immediate and dramatic emissionreductions of all greenhouse gases andmainly the two-degree guardrail is to berespected so the urgent question we nowhave to ask ourselves is whether theglobal community is capable of cuttingemissions of the speed required to avoidWatch at: 17:20 / 17:40the earth passing a point of no returnbeyond which the future will be takenout of our handsand it's this irreversibility that makesglobal warming not simply unique amongstenvironmental problems but unique amongall the problems humanity that's facedbeyond a certain point it will not beWatch at: 17:40 / 18:00possible to change our behavior tocontrol climate change no matter howresolved we are to do so well if GlobalWar global emissions must reach a peakwithin five to ten years then declinerapidly until the world energy systemAlbertine carbonised are theinstitutions of government in the majorWatch at: 18:00 / 18:20nations of the world capable ofresponding in time and our internationalinstitution is capable of agreeing on aglobal plan that's adequate to the taskthese are questions in which climatescientists haven't little useful to saythey're in the domain of political andbehavioral scientists however confidenceWatch at: 18:20 / 18:40in the ability of humans to respond withthe required urgency is dashed when weunderstand fully how near we are to thepoint of no return point which I willnow turn a climate scientists haverecently changed the way they thinkWatch at: 18:40 / 19:00about the task ahead of us they haveadopted the so-called budget approach todescribing what we must do because asI've said carbon dioxide persists in theatmosphere for a very long timeit's cumulative emissions that matter sothe total amount of carbon emissionshumans put in the atmosphere over theWatch at: 19:00 / 19:20next decades will determine our fate atonne of carbon emitted today counts asmuch as one emitted in 2050 so settingtargets such as an 80 percent cut in2050 which could be attained by anynumber of death trajectories isWatch at: 19:20 / 19:40misleading and potentially verydangerous now in a paper to a meeting ofthe Royal Society last year kevinanderson and alice birds from the UK'sTyndall centre the climate changeresearch one of the top such centers usethis budget approach to set out thesituation in the most striking andWatch at: 19:40 / 20:00alarming way there are two ways ofthinking about the task first we can setthe particular target such asstabilizing emissions at 457concentrations at 450 parts per millionand then calculate how soon globalemissions must speak and how quicklythey have to fall in order to meet thatWatch at: 20:00 / 20:20objective or say400 parts per million then we must askwhether the power so defined ispolitically possible given the nationaland international institutions whichmuster mandated changes to put us onthat path that's one way of thinkingabout alternatively we can make the mostWatch at: 20:20 / 20:40hopeful judgments about the emissionsreduction path the world is likely tofollow and then ask where we are wherewe end up how much warming will thatentail and the most optimistic set ofassumptions well Anderson and Bo'sanalyzed the tasks in both of these waysto here I want to focus on the secondapproach in other words I'll based onWatch at: 20:40 / 21:00consistent base very closely on theAnderson embers pedalboard I'm about thesame in this segment of the talk sowe're gonna make some optimisticassumptions about how soon and howquickly emissions can be reduced overthis century and see what sort of aworld will be leftWatch at: 21:00 / 21:20well there are three broad types ofactivity that determine the volume ofgreenhouse gases that going in theatmospherethe first is emissions of carbon dioxidefrom burning fossil fuels and energy andindustrial processes the second iscarbon dioxide again from cutting andWatch at: 21:20 / 21:40burning forests and the third is non co2greenhouse gases which we'll get to in amomentnow the way Enderson birds go about isthey first make some simple assumptionssimple but plausible assumptions aboutwhat we can expect from these second tocome dioxide from forest areas and nonWatch at: 21:40 / 22:00co2 gases mainly from agriculture andthen having made these assumptionsbecause these these sources are lessimportant we can then focus ourintention our attention on the big onecarbon dioxide emissions from burningfossil fuels and in industrial processeswell let's quickly deal with this is theWatch at: 22:00 / 22:20second and third of these let's look atdeforestation deforestation currentlyaccounts for around 12 to 25 percent ofthe world's annual anthropogenic orhuman use carbon dioxide emissionsreducing deforestation rates will needto be a major focus of efforts globallyWatch at: 22:20 / 22:40can minimize climate change if theworld's decision-makers have got aresolute attitude to take on climatechange then an optimistic assumptionabout deforestation would be that therate of deforestation peaks in 2015Watch at: 22:40 / 23:0065 years and that rate falls rapidlythereafter to around half bed currentlevels by 2040 and to zero deforestationby 2060 and that circumstance speed firestation in this century will add only213 billion tons of co2 to theWatch at: 23:00 / 23:20atmosphere what about an on the co2gases well these are mainly methane andnitrous oxide and they accounted in 2004about 23% of total glowgreat house gas emissions in terms oftheir effect a global warming potentialthey mostly emitted from agricultureWatch at: 23:20 / 23:40methane from livestock and ricecultivation and rot nitrous oxide fromyears of fertilizers emissions fromagriculture have grown rapidly as moreland is turned over to crops and apasture and diets shift to theconsumption more meat as people inWatch at: 23:40 / 24:00countries such as China become betteroff now population growth will make thetask of reducing non co2 emissionsharder because of course food is thefirst item that consumption that peoplemust have like emissions fromdeforestation agricultural emissionsmust peak soon then decline unalikeWatch at: 24:00 / 24:20emissions from deforestation they can'tbe reduced to zero because of the natureof food production if the world'sleaders take resolute action then anoptimistic assumption would be that nonco2 emissions will continue to riseuntil 2020 up from nine point fivebillion tonnes in 2002 12 point twoWatch at: 24:20 / 24:40billion tons and then four to sevenpoint five billion tonnes of declines by2050 so that 7.5 Giga tons allocated tofood production would be spread over thesubstantially bigger global populationWatch at: 24:40 / 25:00which is expected to go from six pointsix to nine point two billion by 2050according to the UN so the effect ofthat is that the emissions intensity offood production around the world must bereduced by 50% to stay within that sevenpoint five billion times puttingWatch at: 25:00 / 25:20together these optimistic scenarios fordeforestation and non co2 greenhousegases gives us our floor our basicbottom level that we can't get away withAnderson and burns calculate the totalcumulative emissions from these sectorsover this century bearing in mind thatWatch at: 25:20 / 25:40deforestation rate would seem to fall tozero and 2060 andmissions from agriculture expected tohit this floor 7.5 billion tons by 2050they calculate that because of these totake a year-on-year cumulative emissionsfrom these sources over the rest of thiscentury will amount as some 1,100Watch at: 25:40 / 26:00billion tons of carbon dioxideequivalent so that gives us our for nowwe can turn our attention to the big onecarbon dioxide emissions from burningfossil fuels and for using inbattlefield processes well when we startto think about this two parameters areabsolutely critical the date at whichWatch at: 26:00 / 26:20global emissions reach their peak andthe rate at which emissions fall thereafter that wall you can think of a curvethe integral under the curve gives youthe total emissions over the periodthat's why it's called the budgetapproach so these two criticalWatch at: 26:20 / 26:40parameters the date of the peak and therate of emission reduction there Arthurwill determine the total amount ofgreenhouse gases along with theseassumptions the total amount ofgreenhouse gases that go into theatmosphere over this century and that inturn will determine the resultingincreased concentration of greenhousegases which in turn will fix the amountWatch at: 26:40 / 27:00of global temperature increase thatfollows the later the peak the later thepeak year the more rapidly emissionsmust fall to stay within any emissionsbudget we would like to set soWatch at: 27:00 / 27:20focusing on fossil carbon dioxideemissions a very optimistic assumptionis that global emissions will peak in2020 now stopping global emissionsgrowth will require from that year anyincrease in emissions from developingWatch at: 27:20 / 27:40countries must be more than offset by adecline in emissions from rich countrieslike Ireland an optimistic assessment ofthe prospects of an agreement Copenhagencould see global emissions peak in 2020although a more realistic date would be2030 nevertheless we assume that overallWatch at: 27:40 / 28:00emissions growth can be halted in 2020and here I'm talking about from ourthree sources what rate of emissionsreduction would be feasible in each yearthereafter this is really the criticalquestion virtually no one is deposedwith one or two exceptions how quicklycan we possibly reduce how at what rateWatch at: 28:00 / 28:20cannot we would possibly reduce ourgreenhouse gas emissions well there'ssome very helpful historical datacontained in a much neglected box in thestern review you can see these trulyWatch at: 28:20 / 28:40historical examples economic collapse inthe Soviet Union after the fall of theBerlin Wall in paving the so in 1989 ledto a decline in its greenhouse gasemissions of 5.2 percent per annum for adecade but in that period the economicWatch at: 28:40 / 29:00output of the Soviet Union collapsedfell by half the very widespread socialmisery half of its GDP disappeared andit was that the drove down of course itsgreenhouse gas emissions when Franceembarked on an aggressive program ofWatch at: 29:00 / 29:20building nuclear capacity in the late1970s from which point there was a 40fold increase in 25 years in generationof nuclearthe annual emissions from the ourChristina heat set that in France fellby six percent Brown the total fossilemissions across the small sectors ofWatch at: 29:20 / 29:40the economy fell by only not quite sixpercent less than one percent in the1990s the - the gas in Britain so alarge substitution natural gas the coaland electricity generation at the totalgreenhouse gas emissions in GreatBritain fell by one percent each yearacross the 1990s depressinglyWatch at: 29:40 / 30:00Nicholas Stern concluded that reductionsin emissions of more than one percentover an extended period quote hadhistorically been associated only witheconomic recession or upheaval giventhat some world leaders recognize theseverity of the threat posed by globalWatch at: 30:00 / 30:20warming a couple of them didn't tangleand Merkel certainly does I think thescientific advisors around Barack Obamaunderstand that just what's at stakecan the right has no idea what's butgiven that some do recognize theseverity of the threat and the needunprecedented except in times of war forWatch at: 30:20 / 30:40a rapid structural challenge in in ineconomies it might be reasonable let'ssay well that's an optimistic assumptiondon't expect that the world could agreeto reduce emissions by three percent perannum after the 2020 P so let's be veryWatch at: 30:40 / 31:00optimistic and say well some leadersrecognized that this is an extremelyurgent situation let's assume they'regoing to introduce policies that wouldsee a rate of emissions reduction andthree percent around I might noteincidentally the Treasury's analysis ofthe carbon pollution reduction schemeWatch at: 31:00 / 31:20sees no actual reduction in Australia'semissions until 2040 Australia has along way to go let's say the world makesthis decision one way or another so thatglobal emissions are reduced by threepercent per hour20:20 until they reach this floor of 7.5Watch at: 31:20 / 31:40billion tons of carbon dioxideequivalent set by the mayor to save theworldwell anderson birds in their analysisshowed that because of the assumptionsthat made about rates of reduction fordeforestation and rates of reduction foremissions from agriculture a threepercent decline in total globalemissions will actually require a threeand a half or four percent rate ofWatch at: 31:40 / 32:00decline in carbon dioxide emissions fromenergy and industrial process it's inother words deforestation and emissionis efficiency within food productiondecliner a bit more slowly than thethree percent so that means thatemissions come dioxide emissions fromWatch at: 32:00 / 32:20fossil fuels industrial processes haveto decline at a rate that's a little bitfaster come however since emissions indeveloping countries could be expectedto continue to grow or we're at a slowerrate for some time after 2020 beforeWatch at: 32:20 / 32:39picking and beginning to for emissionsreductions in rich countries under thisglobal three percent emission reductiontarget will need to be a lot higherthey'll actually need to be somewherearound six to seven percent per annumhigher than occurred in Russia duringthe 1990s if we automate this globalWatch at: 32:39 / 33:00three percent emission reduction targetokay with me well it's hard to imagineeven the most concerned and activegovernment swings maybe introducingpolicies that would bring about such arapid industrial restructuringnevertheless let's put aside theseWatch at: 33:00 / 33:20doubts and put ourselves in the mostoptimistic frame of mind we can theglobal emissions do peak in 2020 andthen declined by 3 percent globally eachyear with energy emissions in richcountries falling by six or sevenpercent improvecould we optimistic assumptions head offWatch at: 33:20 / 33:39the worst effects of climate change oreven keep within the two degrees safelevels well Anderson numbers provide uswith the answer and this has been backedby at least three other analyses by ourWatch at: 33:39 / 34:00group which I'll mention in a moment andthe answer is a very grim one indeed ifthat's the path taken by the world thenover the century we humans will pump anextra three thousand billion tons ofgreenhouse gases into the atmospherewhich would not see atmosphericWatch at: 34:00 / 34:20concentrations of greenhouse gases gasis stabilized at a so-calledsafe level of 450 parts per million norwould they stabilize a very dangerouslevel of 550 parts per million they willin fact rise to 650 parts for meWatch at: 34:20 / 34:40this is where you say oh well canthis possibly be truehere's the summary from penicillin boseWatch at: 34:40 / 35:00and consider the relationship betweenthe peaking year and a left-hand columnan assumed annual reduction were rightfor all emissions is that bottom onethat we just went through taking 2020clogged emissions for about threepercent and the reduction for energy andindustrial emissions for a about threeand a half four percent I haven't got aWatch at: 35:00 / 35:20beard at six or seven percent reductionrates for rich countries like us thatresults under they're very optimisticassumptions in atmosphericconcentrations reaching at six hundredand fifty parts per million by the endof the century and probably well beforeassociated with warming the four degreesWatch at: 35:20 / 35:40centigrade a degree of a level ofwarming that has not been experienced onthis planet for fifteen million yearsnow this analysis has been backed bysubsequent reports a recent report bythe German Advisory Council on globalWatch at: 35:40 / 36:00change at wgb you assess what it wouldtake to have a good chance of remainingin the European target of it of twodegrees the so-called true degreeguardrail we have a two out of threechance of limiting warming to twodegrees cumulative global emissions overthe next forty years would need to beWatch at: 36:00 / 36:20kept belowexcuse me 750 billion tonnes with asmall residual amount beyond 2050 forfood production um and here the chartsthat done the red one is the shows youthe 2020 Pekin and they bring it downWatch at: 36:20 / 36:40sharply the level so under that curve isthe total emissions that would be upperlimit in order to keep warming and up tothe green and you can see that if wetake in 2020 and to limitwar markets include racing globally wehave to reduce emissions by nine percentper annum completely inconceivableWatch at: 36:40 / 37:00the wgvu study concluded that even adelay in the peeking year to 2015 meansglobal emissions have to fall at a rateof 5% but it can go to 2020 they havethis to say this is report which wasWatch at: 37:00 / 37:20delivered Angela Merkel quite recently acouple months ago and they write in thereport delaying the peak year evenfurther to 20 20 years in this red linehere couldn't necessarily emissionsreduction rates of up to 9 percentreductions are almost inconceivableWatch at: 37:20 / 37:40scale entailing technological feats andsocial sacrifices on a scale comparableto those of the Allied mobilizationduring the Second World WarJohn Jean Huberwho was at the conference in Oxford twoweeks ago he is the head of the PotsdamInstitute for climate impact researchand as a lead author wgvu study heWatch at: 37:40 / 38:00referred to the areas under these curvesthat describe these carbon budget saysvicious integrals another study on foodit briefly by Mines house and thanothers came to a similar conclusionshowing this very close relationshipbetween the peaking year and the ratesWatch at: 38:00 / 38:20of emission reductions that he'll followif they are if we have to keep withinand the total emissions within fourmillion associate with warming and youcan see that the way they analyze onceyou get beyond 2016 the only way you canstay within menu 2 degrees by afterWatch at: 38:20 / 38:40about 2040 actually had a negativeemissions so again discovering in someway which we don't yet have of suckingcarbon dioxide early on sphere andstoring it in some so for definitelyWatch at: 38:40 / 39:00well it's clear but limiting warm to twodegrees is completely beyond us simplynot going to do it the question now iswhether we can limit warming to fourdegrees the conclusion that even if weact promptly and resolutely the world ison a path to reach 250 parts per millionwith associated warming of the fourdegrees is almost too frightening toWatch at: 39:00 / 39:20accept yet that's the reluctantconclusion of the world's leadingclimate scientists even with the mostoptimistic set of assumptions the endingof deforestation halving of emissionsassociated with food production globalemissions peaking in 2020 and falling ata rate of 3% a year for a few decadeseven with those assumptions we have noWatch at: 39:20 / 39:40chance of preventing emissions risingwell above a number of critical tippingpoints that will spark uncontrollableclimate change the earth seems to belocked on a path leading to a verydifferent climate a new and much lessstable era lastly many centuries beforeWatch at: 39:40 / 40:00natural processes eventually establishedsome sort of equilibrium whether humanbeings will still be a force on a planetor even survive is a midpoint theseconclusions are alarming to say theleastbut they're not alarmist rather thanWatch at: 40:00 / 40:20choosing or interpreting numbers to makethe situation appear worse than it couldbe following Anderson and Birds I'vechosen numbers that were on theconservative side that is assumptionsthat reflect the more buoyant assessmentof what is possible a more neutralassessment and would be even morepessimisticWatch at: 40:20 / 40:40well what does it all mean well thatplanted well on the likely impacts Ithink probably better you're probablyscared enough but I will just show youthis so called burning embers diagramwhich was initially developed for theWatch at: 40:40 / 41:00third assessment report those fivethousand left hand side in 2001 but hasbeen updated by climate scientists arefor this Copenhagen meeting also inMarch of this year to indicate thatclimate science advanced to the pointwhere the types of risks associated withWatch at: 41:00 / 41:20say warming of two degrees is to degreeguardrail which were assessed in 2001other thing you know relatively low tomoderate it's a pale yellow getting abit pink in that left-hand side one thatrisky you're making threatening does ourspecies and systems now put a lot morered and yellow in there basicallyWatch at: 41:20 / 41:40they're greater understanding of climatesystems and the impacts of two degreewarming little own high levels ofwarming have raised the risk ofthresholds very substantially indeed sothe significance of this diagram is truefar on the one hand scientists have nowupdated their assessment of the impactWatch at: 41:40 / 42:00under any degree of warming such asthree degrees and said the risks ofsevere damage are now much higher thanwe previously believed the other thingthat's happened with the sides is thatback then in 2001 there was widelybelieved that with resolute action onthe part of the international communitywarming could be limited to two degreesWatch at: 42:00 / 42:20no one believes that anymoreso we've gone from the lower left-handcorner of this diagram we're now firmlyplaced in the upper right-hand part ofthis diagram if you look across take theright on four degrees across you can seethat all five of those are in the redzone which means very high riskWatch at: 42:20 / 42:40indeed now these facts must cause us torethink entirely how the future willplay out I've spentthinking about that in preparing andwriting this book requiem for a specieswhich comes out in March and I have totell you it's been one of the mostWatch at: 42:40 / 43:00depressing years I've ever spent so wehave to really really think we have torecontextualize the future of that ofplanet Earth and all our societies andother of our own selves and then aboutchildren and grandchildren there arethree this analysis of Anderson Bo's andWatch at: 43:00 / 43:20other climate analysis groups caused usto question some of the most fundamentalassumptions of the whole climate debateand particularly the climate changenegotiations which will reach anotherChristian doe in Copenhagen in Decemberwhat are those assumptions that areWatch at: 43:20 / 43:40challenging this is the last few minutesof my talk the belief that we canstabilize the climate at a specifiedconcentration of greenhouse gases in theatmosphere with an Associated increasein global temperature rests onWatch at: 43:40 / 44:00assumptions that are really notwell-founded in the science the problemis that global warming is likely thetrigger its own natural sources of newemissions in interfere with the Earth'scapacity to remove carbon from theatmosphere where he mentioned the way inwhich natural sinks in the land of oceanthen have decline in their capacity toabsorb carbon dioxide from theWatch at: 44:00 / 44:20atmosphere so the Earth's climateunlike the models of the economists andthe models on which most of ourpolitical leaders are climatenegotiators operate the Earth's climateis not like a machine this temperaturecan be regulated by twiddling somepolicy knobs it's a highly complexWatch at: 44:20 / 44:40system with its own regulatorymechanisms some of the relationshipsamong the burials are nonlinear so thata slight increase in warming can cause avery large shift in some other aspect ofthe climate staying this with deepbecause summer sea ice nowWatch at: 44:40 / 45:00paleoclimatologists have known this fora long time it's only our last few yearsthat this idea is being leakedexplicitly to completed those globalwarming and the types of targets we needto sit if we look imagine a a chartshowing the climate history of the earthstretching back over millennia like theone I showed earlier in a trough wedon't see smooth transitions from iceWatch at: 45:00 / 45:20ages to interglacial or warm periodssuch as the one we're in now thetransitions are sometimes dramatic thesharp changes in the world's climateoccurring sometimes over a few decadesprobably years an amplifying feedbackeffects so climate states can endabruptly once certain thresholds acrossWatch at: 45:20 / 45:40are crossedsetting off accelerated warming thatstopped only when some natural limit isreached such as the disappearance of icefrom Earth which has happened in thepast and critical will probably happenagain this century all eyes that'sfunction the melting of the WestWatch at: 45:40 / 46:00Antarctic Ice Sheet in Greenland willonce started will be unstoppable but itwill take a couple of centuries to meltfully it's believed well after their2008 review of the dangers of planningquite a tipping point it's a group ofleading climate scientists this is aWatch at: 46:00 / 46:20paper Lenten they are widely excitedthey wrote society may be lulled into afalse sense of security by smoothprojections of global change the extentwhich policymakers and their advisorshave been lulled into a false sense ofsecurity is apparent from the suddenemergence of overshooting strategies nowWatch at: 46:20 / 46:40got them explicitly or implicitly byalmost every government in the worldincluding Britain's in Australia'sovershooting was the strategyrecommended in both the stern review andexplicitly taken up by the Guyana reportand this is the view that 450 parts permillion is what we should be on yet it'sWatch at: 46:40 / 47:00too hard politically so we have toaccept 550 and then we'll bringthings down to 450 later on well faithin our ability to overshoot then returnto a safer climate simply fails tounderstand the science whatever we dowe'll be stuck with the results for avery long time if carbon dioxideWatch at: 47:00 / 47:20concentration for each 550 parts permillion associated with warming about 3degrees after which emissions fell tozero the global temperature wouldcontinue to rise for at least anothercentury even if the missions fell tozero on one year that was it because ofWatch at: 47:20 / 47:40the persistence of carbon dioxide in theatmosphere for very long time moreoveronce we reach 550 parts per million anumber of tipping points would havecrossed think back to that other diagramby charging three degrees across threeor four of those critical tipping pointsso that all the efforts of humans thenmake the cut their emissions may beWatch at: 47:40 / 48:00overwhelmed by so-called natural sourcesof greenhouse gases in that case ratherthan stabilizing at 550 parts permillion 550 will just be a level wepassed through one year on a trajectoryto who-knows-wherea thousand parts per million perhaps theWatch at: 48:00 / 48:20new understanding of the climate systemand the likely influenced tipping pointsinduced by human intervention alsoforces us to reconsider one of the otherfoundations of internationalnegotiations and of national policyapproaches underlying and that is theblue can our ability to adapt underlyingWatch at: 48:20 / 48:40discussion of adaptation is an unspokenbelieve that because global warming willchange things slowlypredictably and management manageablywe please at least will be able to adaptin a way that broadly preserves our wayof lifewealthy countries can easily afford tobuild the flood defences to shield roadsWatch at: 48:40 / 49:00and shopping centers and they can evenkeep the sea at bay we can climb approveour homes to shield itself from frequentheat waveyes our belief in our ability tostabilize the Earth's climate isWatch at: 49:00 / 49:20misconceivedand so is our belief in our ability toadapt easily to climate change ifinstead of a smooth transition to a newor read less pleasant climate warmingsets off runaway processes adaptationwill be a never-ending labor if warmingrises above three or four degrees ofWatch at: 49:20 / 49:40chances of severe and abrupt changinghad changed that the chances become higha harsh and prolonged drought as we knowthat can wipe out an entire regions foodproduction Fertile plans can be turnedinto dust bars a week temperatures above40 degrees can kill tens of thousands ofWatch at: 49:40 / 50:00people who succeed in France in 2003 ofcourse the people in poor countriesadaptation means something entirelydifferent the effects of warming will bemore cruel and their ability to adapt ismuch more limited in some the mostimportant assumptions on whichinternational negotiations and nationalWatch at: 50:00 / 50:20policies founded that we can stabilizethe climate at some level butovershooting our returning to a lowertarget it's feasible and if we canaccommodate two or more degrees ofwarned by that thing to itthese have no foundation in the way theEarth's climate system actually behaveswhen one understands the effects theWatch at: 50:20 / 50:40state of the political debate around theworld takes on an air of unreality richcountry policies such as cuttingemissions by a few percent andoutsourcing most of the cuts todeveloping countries waking for carboncapture and storage technology to savethe coal industry and continuing a loseWatch at: 50:40 / 51:00at high levels and Colet happensplanning the construction of newcoal-fired power plants and something ifI couldn't believe my rhythmagain a proposal to export brown coalthese policies are sourodds with the scale and urgency of theWatch at: 51:00 / 51:20emission cuts demanded by the sciencehas to be almost laughable their effectthe childlike belief the climate changecan be averted by ignoring the truth andhoping for the best a form of wishfulthinking whose costs will proveincalculable we moderns have becomeWatch at: 51:20 / 51:40accustomed to the idea that we canmodify the environment to suit our needsand without that accordingly to some 300years we're now discovering that ourintoxicating believes that we canconquer all has come up against agreater force the earth itself we'reWatch at: 51:40 / 52:00discovering that humans cannot regulatethe climate the climate regulates us theprospect of runaway climate changechallenges of technological hubris andour enlightenment faith in reason theearth may soon demonstrate thatWatch at: 52:00 / 52:20ultimately it cannot be tamed and thatthe human urge can master nature hasonly roused a slumbering beastWatch at: 52:20 / 52:40probably the only thing I question isyou said a few times that it depends onwhether we're depending on some way thatcan take Calvin directly out of theatmosphere okay and that that thingdoesn't exist well I mean it's theprocess that actually put much thecarbon in the first place which isphotosynthesis and biology and thataspect of it so in terms of the debateWatch at: 52:40 / 53:00with agriculture and specificallyseasonally dry grasslands the numbersthat we've got from that grace if youtake a patient or a rider and thegeneral collection of numbers is abouttwo tons of co2 equivalent per hectareper animal of change management and it'sWatch at: 53:00 / 53:203.8 billion hectares to four billionhectares of it so there is a capacity tomake a huge difference here with changemanagement that's one of the few thingsthat can have an impact almostimmediately and that's just a piece ofthe debate that's missing cell just interms of the numbers who are talkingthat I don't dispute the rest of it Iagree with a whole heap of that stuffbut the biology side of this andWatch at: 53:20 / 53:40specifically grasslands has been omittedfrom the debate up until now it'sstarting to get traction and theterrestrial Calvin Griffith cetera KevinOgle's likely to get some produce iswondering if thoughts on that well thereis opportunity to extract some carbonWatch at: 53:40 / 54:00dioxide from the atmosphere throughchanged practicesI mean boreal forests but other landland management practices if we can findthe land that can be converted intoalternative more carbon which uses it'sa one-off benefit you know once youconvert unless you find some way ofWatch at: 54:00 / 54:20taking the captured carbon in the formof vegetation and destroying it on theground permanently because now that onceyou got the one-off benefit you know yougo through rotations whereby youyou know they've sort of carbon isreally expecting to be at its peak soWatch at: 54:20 / 54:40you know one out benefit and it could besubstantial oh if you've got a say let'stalk creative improvements andgrasslands grazing point of view carbonWatch at: 54:40 / 55:00levels in the soil are probably droppedfrom five and six percent to the underones yeah okay so let's go past iteitherthe two tonnes per hectare the estimatesout 30 40 50 years as a cumulativefactor okay so this is this is a projectan ongoing natural process that buildsdown builds and buildsyeah we know each other yeah I'm fourWatch at: 55:00 / 55:20billion hectares of two tonnes per annumthe next 50 years of the pitch chunk ofwhat we're talking about they're havingCounty reckoned few hundred tons perhectare per annum as a number kspecially was one of the IPCC leaders onsoils yeah okay I said he's got familyhis figures to see frequent a billionhectares tell you heard about sevenbillion tentative billion tonnes perround and 30 to 50 years consecutiveWatch at: 55:20 / 55:40because there's been a huge decline overthe last what essentially turned up onthe planet so in terms of in terms ofwe're not talking about takinggrasslands or lands and putting themunder forestry and not taking them outof production it's changing the way theymanaged I mean getting that camera withimpact so you're gonna have yourhandsome the carbon store sales tripWatch at: 55:40 / 56:00talking about and your estimate is thetransformation of management practicescould eminently enrich the carbon storea very wide expanse ofland and permanently question a largeWatch at: 56:00 / 56:20part of the industrybill love to see a paper that may makethose estimates I know I'm veryskeptical I what I'm reasonablyskeptical I should say I mean I thinkthe young the biochar people havegrossly over salt it's not by I take theWatch at: 56:20 / 56:40point but someone who's being involvedin climate change policy and analysis ofsome ten years you know you do tend toget a little bit cynical skeptical aboutyou know one magic solution afteranother and as soon as you know peoplelooking forward they look great and theyknow the next couple of years theWatch at: 56:40 / 57:00experts that they construct and they saywell you know it might make a bit of adifference but it's really they noticealso but also correspond with that KevinAnderson and Alex Perez about that aswell a couple of numbers of edges liketo look at the stern review box coveringWatch at: 57:00 / 57:20the French are a reduction of point sixpercent is of course after a nuclearprogram is of course a country figureand doesn't include the processing ofyellowcakeand the net increase in emissionsthrough nuclear fuel processing in othercountries and of course when we'relooking at cool carbon net emissionsWatch at: 57:20 / 57:40we'll have to kind all the temperaturesum you talked about or you felt brieflyto systemic failure failurewhat what possibly to those new systemslook like what do they start to how didit start to take shape because you knowwe're seeing direct action from youngWatch at: 57:40 / 58:00nearly groups on against coalinfrastructure we've seenintergenerational equity issues what doyou think the political landscapepolitical systems of changeaccommodate was a horrific projectionWatch at: 58:00 / 58:20well I mean I think I think thesituation we're in is in part a failureof the birth of the democratic processwe've seen shifting the way politicalsystems operating countries likeAustralia where there's littlesubstantial difference between the twoWatch at: 58:20 / 58:40main political parties and that meansthat money politics tends to play a muchlarger role and there's partly thencompeting for some marginal advantage inme in the mind of the electorate thatmeans they don't have to take anythingtoo seriously it's all part of a youWatch at: 58:40 / 59:00know a sort of chess game and so whatthis is meant is a greater cynicism inpolitic and politics and a loss ofcommitment and passion and that andwe've seen this in an astonishing degreethe way this process works in Canberrathe last year with the way in which thefossil fuel Lobby has mobilized itsWatch at: 59:00 / 59:20resources in an extremely effective wayto essentially neuter the Labourgovernment's commitment to do somethingserious and climate change and to seethe in the light of the sort of analysisthat that people like Anderson & bershave now done to see labour and theWatch at: 59:20 / 59:40coalition at each other's throats overwhere they should allocate ninety fourpoint five percent or ninety sevenpercent of revenue from emission permitsto the polluters I mean it's you couldwrite a fast about it I mean it's soWatch at: 59:40 / 01:00:00absurd it's you just shake your head soI think the only possible way is I'vereally come to grips with this is giventhe widespread levels of denial and I'mnot talking about skeptics I'm talkingabout the general public and thetechniques were used to refuse to faceWatch at: 01:00:00 / 01:00:20up to what the scientists are saying Ithink we need a serious radicalizationdemocratic politics going outside ofthe traditional parliamentary formattedmanifestly failed so for me the only rayof light is the emergence of groups ofWatch at: 01:00:20 / 01:00:40young people in particular who havebecome who were absolutely terrifiedthey noticed and they're absolutelyterrified and they're becoming more andmore and more and more active and goodon them because as their future which wethey do governments have screwed up andWatch at: 01:00:40 / 01:01:00and so I just hope it doesn't come tolight truth is IWatch at: 01:01:00 / 01:01:20and thank you for his fake error foryour talk just in you quickly mentionedSweden there any particular policiestechniques I guess there are countriesthat are leading processes or anysolutions they I just give us a white soWatch at: 01:01:20 / 01:01:40maybe reduce e yeah it's another fourdegrees hey I'm that's why we've got toyou know which radical policies could weintroduce that would that would achievethe three percent reduction in emissionsso that so that we try to rank for afour degrees onlyyou know unheard of 15 million yearsWatch at: 01:01:40 / 01:02:00well certainly I mean some northernstates of Germany for instance had 40percent electricity generated by windpower so you know a rapid shift torenewable energies is actually perfectlyfeasible beauty I think I think it's abit of a wrong way aroundI'm having it is like of war climbWatch at: 01:02:00 / 01:02:20emergence we've just simply made it tosay each imaginations its thing we haveto do this we're just going to do it andand having done that all sorts of thingsthat are currently there will suddenlybe mobilized but also things that haveWatch at: 01:02:20 / 01:02:40next two years to do can't foresee willsuddenly come on the strain as well butof course that means defeating theinfluence of the old energy industriesbut there's a huge amount can be donethis my question about itthe ghost take time to transform anenergy system supplying the way it'sWatch at: 01:02:40 / 01:03:00used but I reckon a crash course in tenyears I mean you know the States andBritain completely transformed theirkana kaanumtwelve eighteen months and they had goodto guarantee their survival at theoutbreak of Second World War so it'sdoable and it's that skull the troubleWatch at: 01:03:00 / 01:03:20is there isn't an enemy and matching onthanks I just like to make phonics bythe energy systems transformation on itwith peak oil he came I mean that's oneWatch at: 01:03:20 / 01:03:40of the things that will be late causeenergy systems to be well it will haveit happens heard of that people for avery long time but economists are hothalf right at least in that as well itWatch at: 01:03:40 / 01:04:00becomes more scarce oil companies ofcourse put more effort into finding newand previously on commercial sources andwe're insane going back to all the oilfields to try and extract the stuff leftbehind but don't probably the mostWatch at: 01:04:00 / 01:04:19wiring of course is oil extraction fromtar sands which the which big oil is nowinvesting in heavily incidentally suretook out an ad saying that itsextraction of oil from tar sands inCanada was a sustainable energy sourceWatch at: 01:04:19 / 01:04:40I mean quartz bin doesn't get morecynical than that so I mean I don'tthink people is going to come you knowin the next 10 or 20 years and and afterthe peak you know there will be probablya slow decline so people come I thinkit's we wonder we all wish it would comeWatch at: 01:04:40 / 01:05:00earlier a long time 5-11and to question mr. Bray quick ones andthey're much more simplistic I thinkthem some of the more detailed stuffthat you've been talking about firstlyWatch at: 01:05:00 / 01:05:19Copenhagen what actually needs to happenand what extent do you think that we canactually achieve anything at all out ofit the first edition secondly not allscientists as I understand it I took inagreement that that the climate changeproblems are entirely man-made thereforethere's major argument even withinWatch at: 01:05:19 / 01:05:40scientific revision in relation to thathow do you argue that in relation to thecauses that you're promoting withoutbeing seen to be something edible atscientists are saying and if I rememberWatch at: 01:05:40 / 01:06:00I'll come back to Copenhagen but reallyif you believe that I'm trying to bevery rude to you if you believe there'sa serious scientific debate on this thenyou've been dupedthere is no serious scientific debatewith a bunch of skeptics few climateWatch at: 01:06:00 / 01:06:19change qualifications who manufactureevidence make outlandish claims Lima isa classic case when his book is full ofdistortions misleading statements andschool by harlots and the seriouslyserious climate scientists who have someWatch at: 01:06:19 / 01:06:40credibility took the opportunity to thereaders I mean they they would laugh atit if if it weren't so seriousso these people they may havepublications in the refereed journals Imean if they did and there was a seriesof them people like me would beWatch at: 01:06:40 / 01:07:00extremely happy and the skeptics wouldwin the Nobel Prize without doubt ofsaving humanity from a huge mistake butthey don't they don't publish in theorypeer-reviewed journals and if you lookat what they say you can be boilingWatch at: 01:07:00 / 01:07:19you'll find that virtually everythingthey say can be traced to skepticswebsites in the United States fundeddirectly or indirectly by the oilindustry takes on a particular so it'ssimply untrueit is simply untrue to say that there isa significant level of scientificWatch at: 01:07:19 / 01:07:40agreement about this and and yet in the1990s when Exxon started fund thesethink tanks they got the best advicethey could from PR companies and theywere and they were told very explicitlybased deliberately on the experienceWatch at: 01:07:40 / 01:08:00fromor tobacco companies but the best way tohead off action is to create doubt inthe public mind and the best way ofcreating doubt is to put up powerexperts who seem to be credible who cansay this is all wrong because peoplewant not to believe I mean who wouldn'tWatch at: 01:08:00 / 01:08:20want to reject this much easier and morecomfortable to say all the scientistscan't make up their mind you know I'llworry about when they do the skeptics ofa small coterie of mostly unqualifiedpeople or people who don't have arecognized expert easily climate scienceWatch at: 01:08:20 / 01:08:40area have been fantastically successfuloften with the collaboration of themedia who traditionally feel they haveto balance one view against the otherthey've been fantastically successful atsowing doubt in the public mind whenthere's the climate scientists aren't inWatch at: 01:08:40 / 01:09:00debt of course there are scientificuncertainties about the basicpropositions and broad thrust of climatesciences is not in disputegovernor clare van Hagen and it's veryhard to know we can look at thecommitments of the major OECD countriesWatch at: 01:09:00 / 01:09:20and think about the 25% target as theminimum necessary that is the emissionreduction by 2020 under 1990 levels toget somewhere near to limiting warmingto two degrees then the publiccommitments of the major nations EUWatch at: 01:09:20 / 01:09:40paying us Australia I suppose then itgoes about halfway at the moment there'sabout half way towards that mind youthat's nearly all in Europe because I'vesaid they'll go 30% if other nationscommit to substantial cuts the UnitedStates earth it's about 4% on 1990Watch at: 01:09:40 / 01:10:00there's a lot ofcompliance five percent of Australianmaybe higher but there's so much realrumour in me us in the Rudd government'scommitment that I don't expect it to beany higher than five percent no matterwhat happens in Copenhagen and of courseit does require developing countries tomake commitments as well not legallyWatch at: 01:10:00 / 01:10:20buying a mission reduction target butcertainly some firm undertaken to reducethe growth rate of their emissions oneway or another in their various schemesin hand for doing that but the best wecould possibly hope for out ofCopenhagen would be some sort ofinternational binding agreement that sawWatch at: 01:10:20 / 01:10:40global emissions peak in 2020 and globalmissions fall by 3% kram thereafterwhich is handsome though so we'll leaveit to the four degrees of warming ofcourse it's not four degrees of warmingthat's went about adamak we've lost allcontrol andWatch at: 01:10:40 / 01:11:00hi he sounds a bit or seen perhaps I'mliterally little bit cynical aboutattempts like those of the government toset legislation that would have madeReedy synapse or 34 percent by 2020nation said by 2050 it is not fair andWatch at: 01:11:00 / 01:11:20secondly it seems that there's but whatyou're saying is it is a lot aboutgetting the message out getting thismessage out you want to talk aboutthere's a role more governments or otherorganizations or non-traditional ways ofgetting the message out about climatechange well I mean the UK government isWatch at: 01:11:20 / 01:11:40perhaps perhaps the most advanced in theworld reducing emissions the point abouttargets like pay 2% cut by 2050 I meanthey're actually mainly they might sayyou know any apologist who can say by2050 we're going to do something but mayWatch at: 01:11:40 / 01:12:00just over 2020 targets are of course youknow very different kettle of fish andme and the UK has gone a long way downthose lines and the UK is really makingsome hard decisions you know and ifyou're not making a severe oppositionthen you're not making decisions andWatch at: 01:12:00 / 01:12:20quite a lot I mean that fudged a lot aswell on aviation for example it was onlythe other day that the extension dakinisnorth power station was abandoned theproposal forward but probably cuz thegovernment banned idli because beyond Ithink it was said that they expectedWatch at: 01:12:20 / 01:12:40demand to be lower so they weren't gonnago ahead and build it so one ferretingaction is possibleUK is you know god may be a pathway towhere every nationneeds to go political communication wellWatch at: 01:12:40 / 01:13:00you know this is a sort of endlesssource of debate and you know I knowwhen I say this is what comes out peoplesaying oh you mustn't say these thingsbecause people become fearful andthey'll be immobilized and so on it'sover hereI mean basically I think you're waybeyond that you know it's like you knowyou may be only enough analogyWatch at: 01:13:00 / 01:13:20maybe the nuclear a high-cost and nowideas you know let's not tell peopleabout you know the possibility of anuclear war and you know let's downplaythe plots of objects it won't be youknow a nuclear winter it'll just be alittle bit of cool in the for a few comeWatch at: 01:13:20 / 01:13:40on this is really really serious and myview is that the problem is not the riskof people becoming too fearful peoplearen't nearly people enough I reallydon't get it and because I don't want toget it and because the skeptics haveWatch at: 01:13:40 / 01:14:00been successful in sowing doubt in theirminds so basically I just think the onlything that will really really have theprospect of getting people to respondwith anything like what's made it is iskara and that's what the young peoplewho are now forming groups like istrying to give Climate Coalition arunning on pure fear I mean I haveWatch at: 01:14:00 / 01:14:20scared about their future and it's thatwhich is motivating them and these ideasthat not only need a positive message soit's more palatable yeah it's justmarketing no we're not sowingso you know we're saving the worldtrying to so I really think that climatescientists and climate activists haveWatch at: 01:14:20 / 01:14:40really got a muscle-up climatescientists themselves spend a lot ofthem they're despairing they'redepressed they're deeply worried aboutfuture including the future of their ownfamilies and some of them feel veryguilty they feel as though they didn'tring the alarm bells loudly enough inWatch at: 01:14:40 / 01:15:00the early years and nowno one's listening or they're notlistening enough and if they run thealigned Bauval 11 years ago then maybewe wouldn't go into this situation Imean I think they're too hard onthemselves but even so you know it'svery very scaryWatch at: 01:15:00 / 01:15:20I'm wondering what could be done to saveus all see any you know what changes inthe political system rather than thescience could you know what could bedone and what do you see changes thatWatch at: 01:15:20 / 01:15:40could happen to bring that about maybesome wall falling whatever what did yousay well I think you know I've alreadytalked about the group of young climateactivists who you know who I have greatadmiration for but of course it wouldWatch at: 01:15:40 / 01:16:00help in fact it's necessary about sortof much broader coalition and maybe themoratorium movement of the sixties andseventies ago tomorrow I mean the reasonit was so successful he said it was abroad coalition of groups from communitygroups churches trade unions peacegroups women's groups and so on and theyWatch at: 01:16:00 / 01:16:20were united with a common albeit simplergoaland over a period of five ten years werevery successful so maybe that's themodel of political action I mean clearlythe the current conventional form ofpolitical activity you're lobbying yourWatch at: 01:16:20 / 01:16:40local member and writing letters totheir mainly newspaper and so on haven'tworked them nearly far enough inbringing about the sort of radicalpolicies that we must now have and itwas a very interesting paper publishedby WWF in the United Kingdom a fewWatch at: 01:16:40 / 01:17:00months ago by Tom Crompton and King kesawhich took a a very novel view of thepsychology of climate change and thetypes of messaging that climate groupsWatch at: 01:17:00 / 01:17:20and and others were were using and thepotential cannot counter the way inwhich that can rake in some of theirmessages by for example telling peoplehere are 10 things youin your home to save the climate I meanI actually think those sorts of messagesdo more harm than good for couple ofWatch at: 01:17:20 / 01:17:40reasons one is that's simply untrue andthey need to be drilled a candle andchanging their life while driving theprayers whilst you know we all workbecause we wanna reduce our own sense ofpersonal responsibilityI simply not got a word I haven't workedand they won't work it is a collectiveproblem not one individual one and theWatch at: 01:17:40 / 01:18:00second reason is why it'scounterproductive is that it reinforcesthe view that problems are the result oftheir individual consumption behaviorand therefore our solution should comeWatch at: 01:18:00 / 01:18:20out of that individual consumptionbehavior in other words we can consumeour way out of this messyou see you're not selling so anyattempt to mobilize these incrediblyWatch at: 01:18:20 / 01:18:40powerful high-powered PR agencies onyour side but why not take on PR peopleWatch at: 01:18:40 / 01:19:00to put forward this message and why notengage television companies andcompanies - yes well there have beenWatch at: 01:19:00 / 01:19:20quite a lot of efforts I mean I'mhimself set up the climate Institutefour years ago with a 10 million dollargrant from philanthropic trust with aWatch at: 01:19:20 / 01:19:40huge precisely to try to mobilize thesesorts of techniques to help shape thepublic opinion and it's not so gettingthe best PR marketing people thinkingabout it and it's not being thatentirely without successWatch at: 01:19:40 / 01:20:00but you can see from where we are nowgiven a woeful level of political debatethat's going on but it's still a veryvery long way to go I mean there's afilm at which some people may have seenI haven't seen it called the age ofstupid which stars Pete PostlethwaiteWatch at: 01:20:00 / 01:20:20he's sitting there in 2050 I believelooking back you know you know in aworld that's vastly transformed lookingback on people in the 20 years 20thcentury and trying to understand howthey screwed up so badly so people areusing those sorts of innovative ways totry to communicate a message I haveWatch at: 01:20:20 / 01:20:40actually seen a couple of filmsdocumentary star films on what a worldwould be like before the race and veryvery effective ones but not the sort ofthing vast numbers of people are gonnawant to get pictures of Friday not towatch well yes yes well the message isWatch at: 01:20:40 / 01:21:00sexy I mean a Hollywood large climatechange and you know every respectableyou know Hollywood the star under 40 hasyou know drives a Prius and has jumpedon the bandwagon and has appeared on thecover of Vanity Fair dressed in greenclothing they do it but this is theWatch at: 01:21:00 / 01:21:20limit there's a resistance and of courseyou know if the celebs do get involved Imean people who might like it butthey're single as well quite rightlybecause you know if you think it bonofor example to take him seriously onanything so one people are thinkingWatch at: 01:21:20 / 01:21:40about this and they're putting a lot ofeffort into it but you know the task ishas there been any attempt to engage anyindustry group other than the baddies ofcolon oil people in the energy businessWatch at: 01:21:40 / 01:22:00might be interested actually developingmore of the wind and the solar andenergy generation has there that youknow I've been in the attempt to do thatyeah they've been very substantialmobilizations of some very bigcorporates in banking insurance allWatch at: 01:22:00 / 01:22:20sorts even in some some of the energycompanies I'm Gareth II actually heavilyinvolved in this and I was asking moreabout it and I do see I see every fewyears ago did get together a great verybig organisation for personality the coWatch at: 01:22:20 / 01:22:40Simon coalition which is a prettypowerful force but you know in the endit's some enlightened business peoplesaying we really need to change thisbecause we think this is a way of thefuture up against some very determinedfossil fuel industries through quiteWatch at: 01:22:40 / 01:23:00rocky see their future at stake thefuture use of the state they shoulddisappear the next 10 years simple asthatand so they will fight tooth and nailyou know for then they are willing tohave sacrifice a lot to win the battlewhereas these other big companies aren'twilling to sacrifice a lotWatch at: 01:23:00 / 01:23:20martial arts ESL rooms was clean techcompany I had the first internationalclimate risk a consulting firm andlooking at risk in the climate change umWatch at: 01:23:20 / 01:23:40I recently had dinner with that themanaging director of the world'sdirtiest coal plant and I find that it'svery easy to be drawn into dogma andform for reviews and often what happensas we tend to demonize people havingdinner with this managing director weWatch at: 01:23:40 / 01:24:00talked we had looked at 58 clean techtechnologies since January so somecompanies are actually trying to dosomething about it but it's somethingclearly I'm doing nothing about it inAustralia we still like behind on nearlyevery metric and it's a difficult placeWatch at: 01:24:00 / 01:24:20it's an expensive for me to work here ona number of levels but we are startingto see new generations of technologycoming through new generations of peoplethat have adaptive minds adaptivethinking that can unlock themselvesWatch at: 01:24:20 / 01:24:40catch themselves from the best interestsum I'm just one quite a Copenhagen I wasin Bali briefing rut I looked over theshoulder in there with the alibiingcool and other interested parties therewasn't one climate scientist in thegovernment team and there isn't one inWatch at: 01:24:40 / 01:25:00Copenhagen so don't expect a politicalprocess follow any rational argumentthat's a personal view it'smyyou know just wanted to say yeah is isWatch at: 01:25:00 / 01:25:20there any sort of education program byeducating so like our well privateschools or you know secondly cottagesand you know groups like in until I sellbrother groups or organizations or evenuniversities can we educate our studentsWatch at: 01:25:20 / 01:25:40is it too late for them well I mean Imean in a sense anything we can do willbe beneficial because they're theminimum we can delay some of thishappening so I mean it's not a questionof giving up we have to redouble theirefforts in my view it's actually know aWatch at: 01:25:40 / 01:26:00bit about secondary schools and climatechange education because when I was atthe Australia is you know ten months agobut one of the last things we did we didwhile I was there in the six monthsprior to that was to develop a acurriculum for different subject areasWatch at: 01:26:00 / 01:26:20and secondary school on various aspectsof climate change science and policy andthere is a website where all thatmaterial is now I don't know reallythink about that not connected with theWatch at: 01:26:20 / 01:26:40Institute anymore that done that wascertainly promoted by some teachingservices in the country and in baby theteachers union so that was seem to be avaluable resource don't I mean we've gota lot of expert advice of courseWatch at: 01:26:40 / 01:27:00thank you for what you said before I'mwondering if in light of all thatthere's not a social challenge even moreeven deeper and more scary than the thescientific one which is our or theWatch at: 01:27:00 / 01:27:20global incapacity to generate enoughurgency to tackle that and I'm wonderingif there's not we should look towardsmaybe putting solutions in fromvisioning different futures challengingWatch at: 01:27:20 / 01:27:40the the energy companies to put sort ofprototypes in front of people and andtell it well if you do this this sort offuture is possible rather than if wefight the the coal miners or and so onwell a lot of people have done a lot ofWatch at: 01:27:40 / 01:28:00work over the years trying to developpositive futures and I actually believethat you know had we got on boardearlier that over 20 year period wecould have radically transformed ourenergy economies headed off the worst ofWatch at: 01:28:00 / 01:28:20climate change and actually had bettermore comfortable lives because a lot ofthe energy technologies alternativeenergy technologies have all sorts ofbenefits other than reducing greenhousegas emissionsjust think Transport Systems up forexample and building houses that aremore energy efficient you know they'reWatch at: 01:28:20 / 01:28:40not just more energy efficient theyactually more comfortable to live in allsorts of things like that so quite a lotof thinking and work is going into thatthere's plenty of that around and it'syou know it's very persuasive if youaccept that there's a problem that wethat we have to tackle there's one issueI haven't talked about which I doWatch at: 01:28:40 / 01:29:00develop quite a lot in a book and thatis our astonishing preoccupation witheconomic growth the truth is whatevertechnologies that we develop andimplement they're going to have to runreally realjust to keep up or just walks it theWatch at: 01:29:00 / 01:29:20effects of economic growth if you lookat I did a study that was published inenergy policy a few years ago thatlooked at the sources of greenhouse gasemissions growth in OECD countries andtry and get the figures right herethey're fairly simple anonymous butgreenhouse gas emissions in OECDWatch at: 01:29:20 / 01:29:40countries increased by over this periodof a 20-year period by 10% they weredriven up by party by population growthWatch at: 01:29:40 / 01:30:00but overwhelmingly by economic growththat's higher incomes and technologywhich has been quite effective couldoffset about half of it half of theTelegraph but no less let deal with themcontinued growth but if you look at whatChina is doing I mean China is actuallyvery very wide about connections theyWatch at: 01:30:00 / 01:30:20know that they're in very big troubleI mean negative horrible droughts innorthern China very worried about socialunrest and sea level rise massivepotential problem in a few decades timeand so China is actually networking backfrom the program's only emerge the lastfew months or knowledge otters and theWest is only most of life you knowWatch at: 01:30:20 / 01:30:40they had a dominate the global marketfor renewable energy they taking overthe wind power industry they're takingover Solar Bears fun with solar powerand they gather driver firstly bydomestic are used a mandate a massiveWatch at: 01:30:40 / 01:31:00increase in wind power for example thatbought the technology that refine it andthey'll be exporting wind turbines andthey sell things on to northern Europe adecade thanks Nico so they're very veryserious about it but done the greateconomyWatch at: 01:31:00 / 01:31:20so massive that even though they've gotthese huge programs of promotingrenewable energy their emissions aregoing to easily double in the next 20years even with all that so great is amassive massive problem that's you knowWatch at: 01:31:20 / 01:31:40I wouldn't tell China should grow moreslowly but I'd certainly say inAustralia we should grow more slowlywe're even shrink and one concern aboutsound two more questions I think we canWatch at: 01:31:40 / 01:32:00from my backpack which is an educationalone I think you know rtu questionstudents are incredibly interested inthis an environmental science is one ofthose subjects that has really gonethrough the roof as opposed to all theother sciences or a little students areundertaking and it's one of those issuesI don't know at schools that are goingto that doesn't have an environmentalWatch at: 01:32:00 / 01:32:20one which has been at one of the mostpopular clubs in the schools whateverhow thick it is whatever they're doingbut it's certainly a real topic ofinterest finallyhi I just want it was do you feel thisWatch at: 01:32:20 / 01:32:40corporate organizations and governmentorganizations are fooling around withminds of people like changing a bulb ordriving less like it's not the normalconsumption of human beings like thechanges they make will surely contributeWatch at: 01:32:40 / 01:33:00to lower their emissions but the majorcontributors are the corporateorganization and the industries and Iseriously feel that if there is enougheducation in layman's language like whatI learned from today do you think likeif everybody the general public will beWatch at: 01:33:00 / 01:33:20informed about it it will put pressureon the industries and the government tocreate some policies and reduce thecarbon emissions of the footprint yesindeed I think it's the only only waythe corporate interests have been veryWatch at: 01:33:20 / 01:33:40very influential in shaping the theterms of this debate I mean we see itconstantly in Parliamentyou know the relentless emphasis on onjobs actually the the lies farabsolutely astonishing I mean if youlisten to the National Party or theAustralian Coal Association you thinkWatch at: 01:33:40 / 01:34:00that the Rudd government's very weakCPRS is going to lead to massive joblosses in areas heavily dependent oncoal or burning coal in fact all oftheir analysis shows that wood therewill not be one job lost what theWatch at: 01:34:00 / 01:34:20analysis shows that jobs would not growas rapidly and yet they're out theresaying this will devastate jobs and leadto massive unemployment well you knowthere ought to be some truth in politicsthing where you crossed some linejust try and tell lies like that noWatch at: 01:34:20 / 01:34:40that's true then yeah there's a distinctimbalance I mean the government the RuddGovernment was going to have a series ofads to raise public awareness of climateWatch at: 01:34:40 / 01:35:00change and its risks and in fact theydid put someone in the early months andthey're really hopeless you know there'sno another area you know what theirclimate change what's on the otherchannel so really they didn't cutthrough but I think your point aboutWatch at: 01:35:00 / 01:35:20green consumerism is own a very strongone I mean look we've had for at least10 years a very sustained campaign bythe electricity retailers to persuadepeople to buy green energy you knowrenewal based energy the take-up rateamongst household after all at it thatWatch at: 01:35:20 / 01:35:40is about 9% in Australia so appealing topeople's financial interests or goodconscience to behave in a way that wehave those consumers is really as I'vesaid counterproductive because the shiftWatch at: 01:35:40 / 01:36:00responsibility from the corporation'sany government under the shoulders ofindividual consumers and so thepromotion of these schemes you knowchange your light bulb and whatever Ithink is is a way of those who canreally solve this avoidingresponsibility for and what it does isWatch at: 01:36:00 / 01:36:20it reinforces the impact of theneoliberal revolution I can call it thathead over last 25 30 years and thetremendous emphasis on individualit's an individual action and peopleexpressing their preferences throughtheir consumption behavior rather thanWatch at: 01:36:20 / 01:36:40through their ballot box behaviorthere's a huge amount of evidence toshow now - people behave in verydifferent ways it's not inconsistent tofail to bring out your retailer and gripand get green energy on the one hand butto vote for a government that willmandate that everybody has to have greenenergy people get all the time I meanWatch at: 01:36:40 / 01:37:00probably not too many people would paytheir taxes voluntarily but if everybodyhas to pay their taxes and peoplebelieve that everyone's paying areasonable and PhD and then most peopleare pretty happy to pay okayso well yeah I think in a way we're avictim of this huge shift over the lastWatch at: 01:37:00 / 01:37:20thirty years away from collective formsof action through political activity andthe emphasis on consumer behavior andindividuals
RSA Australia and New Zealand present Clive Hamilton
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